Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Şahdağ · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Şahdağ 6-0 Zaqatala
Original prediction
Şahdağ
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 62.3% | 55.0% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.3% | 24.1% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 6.22 | 14.4% | 20.9% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Şahdağ
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
Şahdağ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ŞahdağWWWDD
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ZaqatalaLWDWL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
ŞahdağZaqatala
77.8Attack55.6
88.9Defence44.4
100.0Form44.4
90.0Power47.9
2.08xG1.01