Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Şahdağ · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Şahdağ 1-0 Səbail
Original prediction
Şahdağ
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 35.0% | 44.4% | 9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.6% | 26.5% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.4% | 29.1% | -7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Şahdağ
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Şahdağ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ŞahdağLWWWW
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
SəbailWDWWD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
ŞahdağSəbail
86.7Attack53.3
86.7Defence73.3
80.0Form73.3
80.7Power69.5
1.59xG1.02