Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karvan · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (8%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Şahdağ 2-0 Karvan
Original prediction
Karvan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.51 | 25.6% | 33.1% | 7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.3% | 28.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.99 | 45.2% | 38.1% | -7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–08%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Karvan
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Karvan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ŞahdağWDDWW
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
KarvanWDLLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ŞahdağKarvan
33.3Attack100.0
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power97.0
1.31xG1.32