Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ahal 2-2 Paro
Original prediction
Paro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.6% | 35.7% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.1% | 27.2% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 33.3% | 37.2% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.77 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Paro
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Paro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AhalLLWWL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
ParoWWWWW
GF 29 · GA 2 · avg 5.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
AhalParo
50.0Attack66.7
50.0Defence100.0
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power88.7
1.33xG1.55