Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahal · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Ahal are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Balkan are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Ahal hold a 28.2-point power-rating edge (66.8 v 38.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 75.2% in the Ýokary Liga, while Ahal holds the strongest overall chance at 75% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 29% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ahal
Probability
75.2%
Model confidence
75.2%
Ahal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40