Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al Ansar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ahal 2-1 Al Ansar
Original prediction
Al Ansar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 12:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.08 | 17.9% | 25.9% | 8.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.8% | 25.2% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 59.3% | 48.9% | -10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Al Ansar
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Al Ansar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AhalLDLLW
GF 7 · GA 16 · avg 1.40/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Al AnsarWWWWD
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AhalAl Ansar
50.0Attack66.7
0.0Defence83.3
16.7Form100.0
25.2Power86.5
1.23xG1.87