Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Şagadam are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Nebitci are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Şagadam hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (38.0 v 35.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.9% in the Ýokary Liga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20