Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahal · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Şagadam are 0W-0D-4L in their last 4 (LLLL), averaging 0.50 scored and 2.25 conceded, while Ahal are 1W-0D-3L in their last 4 (LLLW), averaging 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 8 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Ahal hold a 31.8-point power-rating edge (38.0 v 69.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 66.5% in the Ýokary Liga, while Ahal holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ahal
Probability
66.5%
Model confidence
66.5%
Ahal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.50/2.25
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.75/1.50