Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Şagadam · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Şagadam are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DDLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Aşgabat are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Şagadam hold an 8.1-point power-rating edge (38.0 v 29.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the Ýokary Liga, while Şagadam holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Şagadam
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
13.9%
Şagadam has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00