Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aşgabat · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Aşgabat are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Balkan are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WDLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Balkan hold a 5.7-point power-rating edge (33.0 v 38.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.3% in the Ýokary Liga, while Aşgabat holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aşgabat
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Aşgabat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20