Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ahal · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-2
Aşgabat are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Ahal are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Ahal hold a 39.9-point power-rating edge (29.9 v 69.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 79.8% in the Ýokary Liga, while Ahal holds the strongest overall chance at 80% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 66% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ahal
Probability
79.8%
Model confidence
79.8%
Ahal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40