Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aşgabat · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Aşgabat are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Şagadam are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Şagadam hold an 8.1-point power-rating edge (29.9 v 38.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 33.7% in the Ýokary Liga, while Aşgabat holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aşgabat
Probability
33.7%
Model confidence
33.7%
Aşgabat has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00