1. Deild1. Deild
Friday, 26 June 2026Last updated 12:34
Afturelding

Afturelding

Home
DW
20
Full time
Njardvik

Njardvik

Away
LWW
GoalVio prediction
67% confidence
Afturelding(67%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction correct— Result: Afturelding
Win probability
Afturelding
67%
Draw
21%
Njardvik
12%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Afturelding
73
Njardvik
83
Defence
Afturelding
66
Njardvik
11
Momentum
Afturelding
67
Njardvik
67
Danger (xG)
Afturelding
1.80
Njardvik
2.10
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 3.68 xG for Afturelding and 0.80 xG for Njardvik. Njardvik's projected xG of 0.80 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 3-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Afturelding will score, but Njardvik's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.Afturelding's defensive record — 2 clean sheets in 10 matches — combined with Njardvik's limited attacking output (3 clean sheets conceded in 10 games) supports the model's projection of at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 4.47 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 3-0 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Afturelding's Attack Score (73) vs Njardvik's Defensive Stability (11) and Njardvik's attack (83) vs Afturelding's defence (66) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Afturelding)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Njardvik)
2.10
avg per match
xG against (Afturelding)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Njardvik)
2.40
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
AftureldingAfturelding
WWWWW
NjardvikNjardvik
LWWLL

Probability breakdown

67% confidence
Afturelding67%
Draw21%
Njardvik12%

Afturelding leads with 67% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Afturelding Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Afturelding host Njardvik in 1. Deild. Afturelding have recorded LWWWWW in recent matches while Njardvik arrive with a run of LWWLWW. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 4.6 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 3.68 expected goals for Afturelding against 0.80 for Njardvik — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Afturelding's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 59% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 🔄 Head-to-Head Record Afturelding have won 7 of the last 10 meetings between these sides — a historically dominant record that the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying stats are otherwise close.

Why GoalVio backs this

Afturelding are generating a dominant xG advantage — 3.68 projected against 0.80 for Njardvik. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 2.88 is the clearest signal in the model that Afturelding are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Njardvik have won 4 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If Njardvik carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • Njardvik are in decent form with 4 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • These sides have drawn 2 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Head to head

Afturelding 2Draws 00 Njardvik
Avg goals: 2.0
26 Jun 2026
Afturelding
W20
Njardvik
13 May 2026
Afturelding
W20
Njardvik

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Frequently asked questions

Who will win Afturelding vs Njardvik?

GoalVio's model predicts Afturelding to win with 67% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Afturelding vs Njardvik?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Afturelding vs Njardvik?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Afturelding vs Njardvik?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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