1. Deild1. Deild
Thursday, 16 July 2026Last updated 10:02
Afturelding

Afturelding

Home
DW
32
Full time
Leiknir R.

Leiknir R.

Away
LL
GoalVio prediction
47% confidence
Afturelding(47%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction correct— Result: Afturelding
Win probability
Afturelding
47%
Draw
27%
Leiknir R.
26%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Afturelding
73
Leiknir R.
34
Defence
Afturelding
66
Leiknir R.
27
Momentum
Afturelding
67
Leiknir R.
0
Danger (xG)
Afturelding
1.80
Leiknir R.
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 3.68 xG for Afturelding and 0.89 xG for Leiknir R.. Leiknir R.'s projected xG of 0.89 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 3-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Afturelding will score, but Leiknir R.'s attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.Afturelding's Defensive Stability Score (66) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (34). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 4.56 — high attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 3-0 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating high xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Afturelding's Attack Score (73) vs Leiknir R.'s Defensive Stability (27) and Leiknir R.'s attack (34) vs Afturelding's defence (66) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Afturelding)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Leiknir R.)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Afturelding)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Leiknir R.)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
AftureldingAfturelding
WWWWW
Leiknir R.Leiknir R.
LLW

Probability breakdown

47% confidence
Afturelding47%
Draw27%
Leiknir R.26%

Afturelding leads with 47% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Afturelding Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Afturelding host Leiknir R. in 1. Deild. Afturelding have recorded LWWWWW in recent matches while Leiknir R. arrive with a run of LWDLLL. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 3.68 expected goals for Afturelding against 0.89 for Leiknir R. — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Afturelding's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 64% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 📈 Recent Form Afturelding arrive in better recent form — 5 wins from 10 matches (LWWWWW) against Leiknir R.'s 1. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.

Why GoalVio backs this

Afturelding are generating a dominant xG advantage — 3.68 projected against 0.89 for Leiknir R.. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 2.79 is the clearest signal in the model that Afturelding are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Afturelding are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • These sides have drawn 3 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Head to head

Afturelding 1Draws 00 Leiknir R.
Avg goals: 5.0BTTS in 1/1
16 Jul 2026
Afturelding
W32
Leiknir R.

Recent form

Afturelding

Afturelding

W
vs Leiknir R.
16 Jul 2026
32
W
@ Völsungur
11 Jul 2026
61
W
@ IR Reykjavik
3 Jul 2026
10
W
vs Ægir
29 Jun 2026
81
W
vs Njardvik
26 Jun 2026
20
Leiknir R.

Leiknir R.

L
@ Afturelding
16 Jul 2026
23
L
vs Grotta
10 Jul 2026
01
W
vs IR Reykjavik
26 Jun 2026
21

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Afturelding vs Leiknir R.?

GoalVio's model predicts Afturelding to win with 47% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Afturelding vs Leiknir R.?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Afturelding vs Leiknir R.?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Afturelding vs Leiknir R.?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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