AFC Wimbledonvs
Wigan
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 8/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Wimbledon · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Wigan
Original prediction
AFC Wimbledon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.11 | 30.0% | 38.8% | 8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.9% | 27.9% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 41.1% | 33.4% | -7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
AFC Wimbledon
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
AFC Wimbledon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60