GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/2/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

AFC Wimbledon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

AFC Wimbledon are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Stevenage are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and AFC Wimbledon hold a 4.3-point power-rating edge (59.2 v 54.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.0% in the EFL Trophy, while AFC Wimbledon holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

AFC Wimbledon

Probability

47.0%

Model confidence

47.0%

AFC Wimbledon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

AFC WimbledonLLWLW

GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
StevenageWLWWL

GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AFC WimbledonStevenage
61.1Attack66.7
61.1Defence55.6
55.6Form44.4
59.2Power54.9
1.96xG1.41
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