AFC Wimbledonvs
Doncaster
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Wimbledon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Doncaster
Original prediction
AFC Wimbledon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.61 | 35.7% | 38.2% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.1% | 27.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 36.2% | 34.0% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
AFC Wimbledon
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
AFC Wimbledon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40