GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/16/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

AFC Wimbledon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

AFC Wimbledon are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Crystal Palace U21 are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 10 passed 2.5 goals, and AFC Wimbledon hold a 42.5-point power-rating edge (59.2 v 16.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 69.4% in the EFL Trophy, while AFC Wimbledon holds the strongest overall chance at 69% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

AFC Wimbledon

Probability

69.4%

Model confidence

69.4%

AFC Wimbledon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

AFC WimbledonWLLLL

GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Crystal Palace U21DLWLW

GF 12 · GA 13 · avg 2.40/2.60

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
AFC WimbledonCrystal Palace U21
61.1Attack22.2
61.1Defence11.1
55.6Form0.0
59.2Power16.7
2.74xG1.02
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