GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/7/2023, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

AFC Wimbledon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

AFC Wimbledon are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Crystal Palace U21 are 2W-0D-2L in their last 4 (LWWL), averaging 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 9 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and AFC Wimbledon hold a 42.5-point power-rating edge (59.2 v 16.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 69.4% in the EFL Trophy, while AFC Wimbledon holds the strongest overall chance at 69% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

AFC Wimbledon

Probability

69.4%

Model confidence

69.4%

AFC Wimbledon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

AFC WimbledonLLDLD

GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Crystal Palace U21LWWL

GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.25/1.00

BTTS 1/4O2.5 2/4
AFC WimbledonCrystal Palace U21
61.1Attack22.2
61.1Defence11.1
55.6Form0.0
59.2Power16.7
2.74xG1.02
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