GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/29/2024, 7:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

AFC Wimbledon · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

AFC Wimbledon are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Brighton U21 are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and AFC Wimbledon hold a 5.5-point power-rating edge (59.2 v 53.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.6% in the EFL Trophy, while AFC Wimbledon holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

AFC Wimbledon

Probability

43.6%

Model confidence

43.6%

AFC Wimbledon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

AFC WimbledonLWLWW

GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Brighton U21LDWLL

GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AFC WimbledonBrighton U21
61.1Attack44.4
61.1Defence66.7
55.6Form50.0
59.2Power53.7
1.60xG1.18
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