AFC Telford Unitedvs
Oxford City
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oxford City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Telford United 1-0 Oxford City
Original prediction
Oxford City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.4% | 23.0% | -17.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.0% | 24.2% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.78 | 32.6% | 52.8% | 20.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Oxford City
Probability
52.8%
Model confidence
52.8%
Oxford City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00