AFC Rushden & Diamondsvs
Morecambe
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Rushden & Diamonds · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2-1 Morecambe
Original prediction
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.12 | 22.0% | 37.5% | 15.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.1% | 25.0% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 54.9% | 37.5% | -17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 3.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
AFC Rushden & Diamonds has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60