AFC Rushden & Diamondsvs
Braintree
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Rushden & Diamonds · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2-1 Braintree
Original prediction
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.90 | 23.4% | 37.1% | 13.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.5% | 26.5% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.69 | 54.1% | 36.4% | -17.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
AFC Rushden & Diamonds has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20