Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Malmo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Malmo 3-1 Utsikten
Original prediction
AFC Malmo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 73.3% | 45.6% | -27.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.51 | 16.3% | 26.0% | 9.7 pts |
| Away | 8.61 | 10.4% | 28.5% | 18.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
AFC Malmo
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
AFC Malmo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AFC MalmoLDDDL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
UtsiktenDLDLL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AFC MalmoUtsikten
11.1Attack0.0
55.6Defence66.7
11.1Form16.7
29.5Power31.3
1.16xG1.10