AFC Hornchurchvs
Scunthorpe
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/19/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Hornchurch · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Hornchurch 1-0 Scunthorpe
Original prediction
AFC Hornchurch
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 38.0% | 44.2% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.8% | 24.5% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.59 | 35.2% | 31.2% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
AFC Hornchurch
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
AFC Hornchurch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80