AFC Hornchurchvs
Eastleigh
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Hornchurch · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Hornchurch 2-0 Eastleigh
Original prediction
AFC Hornchurch
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 45.1% | 38.7% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.5% | 28.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.22 | 28.4% | 33.1% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
AFC Hornchurch
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
AFC Hornchurch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00