AFC Hornchurchvs
Aldershot Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aldershot Town · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: AFC Hornchurch 0-0 Aldershot Town, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Hornchurch 2-1 Aldershot Town
Original prediction
Aldershot Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.5% | 33.5% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 26.1% | 30.1% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 31.4% | 36.3% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.9 pts
Projected Score
AFC Hornchurch 0–0 Aldershot Town
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Aldershot Town
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Aldershot Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80