Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Fylde · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Fylde 2-2 Worthing
Original prediction
AFC Fylde
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.8% | 53.6% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.8% | 22.3% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 3.75 | 24.4% | 24.1% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.84 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
AFC Fylde
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
AFC Fylde has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AFC FyldeWWLWD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
WorthingLLWLW
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AFC FyldeWorthing
73.3Attack60.0
53.3Defence33.3
66.7Form40.0
66.0Power47.4
2.44xG1.36