GGOALVIO

England · National League · 8/12/2023, 2:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chesterfield · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2

Highconfidence

AFC Fylde are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Chesterfield are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Chesterfield hold a 21.9-point power-rating edge (45.6 v 67.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.0% in the National League, while Chesterfield holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chesterfield

Probability

58.0%

Model confidence

58.0%

Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

AFC FyldeDWWDL

GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ChesterfieldWLWLL

GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AFC FyldeChesterfield
53.6Attack76.8
40.6Defence52.9
39.9Form71.0
45.6Power67.6
1.53xG2.70
View match centre →