Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Fylde · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Fylde 0-2 Carlisle
Original prediction
AFC Fylde
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 41.2% | 50.8% | 9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.2% | 22.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.6% | 26.4% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
AFC Fylde
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
AFC Fylde has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AFC FyldeWLWWD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CarlisleLLDDL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AFC FyldeCarlisle
70.0Attack59.3
56.7Defence48.1
66.7Form37.0
65.8Power49.0
2.47xG1.31