AFC Emleyvs
Workington
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Workington · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Emley 1-3 Workington
Original prediction
Workington
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 32.0% | 27.1% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.3% | 25.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 42.7% | 47.4% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Workington
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Workington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60