AFC Emleyvs
Spennymoor Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Emley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Emley 0-4 Spennymoor Town
Original prediction
AFC Emley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.21 | 28.2% | 49.0% | 20.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 23.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 1.98 | 45.9% | 27.3% | -18.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
AFC Emley
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
AFC Emley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00