AFC Emleyvs
Lancaster City
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lancaster City · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Emley 1-0 Lancaster City
Original prediction
Lancaster City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 34.8% | 29.6% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.2% | 24.2% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 40.0% | 46.2% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Lancaster City
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Lancaster City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00