AFC Bournemouth U21vs
Stoke City U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 9/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Bournemouth U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Bournemouth U21 2-1 Stoke City U21
Original prediction
AFC Bournemouth U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 58.2% | 44.3% | -13.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.59 | 19.5% | 23.3% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 4.01 | 22.3% | 32.4% | 10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
AFC Bournemouth U21
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
AFC Bournemouth U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80