AFC Bournemouth U21vs
Plymouth U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League Cup · 10/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Bournemouth U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AFC Bournemouth U21 6-1 Plymouth U21
Original prediction
AFC Bournemouth U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 57.7% | 48.0% | -9.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.0% | 23.9% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 4.23 | 21.3% | 28.0% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
AFC Bournemouth U21
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
AFC Bournemouth U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 1.50/3.00