Afan Lidovs
Newport City
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/25/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newport City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Afan Lido 0-0 Newport City
Original prediction
Newport City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 35.7% | 32.4% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.1% | 24.1% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 39.2% | 43.6% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Newport City
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Newport City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00