AF Elbasanivs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
COMPLETEDAlbania · Superliga · 9/13/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AF Elbasani 2-1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.41 | 37.1% | 34.1% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.7% | 30.1% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 34.1% | 35.8% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.1%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AF ElbasaniLDDDD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
Egnatia RrogozhinëWWLWD
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AF ElbasaniEgnatia Rrogozhinë
37.0Attack100.0
64.8Defence66.7
46.3Form100.0
51.2Power88.7
0.95xG1.05