AELvs
Nea Salamis
COMPLETEDCyprus · 1. Division · 9/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AEL · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AEL 2-1 Nea Salamis
Original prediction
AEL
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 46.1% | 42.4% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.1% | 27.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.55 | 25.8% | 30.6% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.98 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
AEL
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
AEL has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AELLWWDW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Nea SalamisLDWDW
GF 14 · GA 11 · avg 2.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AELNea Salamis
50.8Attack43.3
43.3Defence49.2
45.0Form42.5
47.9Power46.4
1.67xG1.34