Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AEL · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AEL 1-3 Aris
Original prediction
AEL
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.57 | 25.7% | 43.5% | 17.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.5% | 25.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 47.9% | 31.2% | -16.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
AEL
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
AEL has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AELWWWWL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ArisDWWLW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AELAris
55.6Attack38.9
55.6Defence55.6
83.3Form50.0
65.4Power50.9
1.64xG1.02