AEK Larnacavs
Pafos
COMPLETEDCyprus · 1. Division · 9/13/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AEK Larnaca · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: AEK Larnaca 1-0 Pafos, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
AEK Larnaca 0-1 Pafos
Original prediction
AEK Larnaca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 38.0% | 46.7% | 8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.8% | 27.7% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 33.2% | 25.6% | -7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Projected Score
AEK Larnaca 1–0 Pafos
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
AEK Larnaca
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
AEK Larnaca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AEK LarnacaWWLWL
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PafosDWWWD
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AEK LarnacaPafos
52.8Attack0.0
71.3Defence100.0
67.6Form33.3
65.1Power45.3
1.64xG0.67