AEK Larnacavs
Apoel Nicosia
COMPLETEDCyprus · 1. Division · 8/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AEK Larnaca · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: AEK Larnaca 0-0 Apoel Nicosia, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
AEK Larnaca 3-1 Apoel Nicosia
Original prediction
AEK Larnaca
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 49.0% | 37.8% | -11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 27.7% | 29.4% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.93 | 23.3% | 32.8% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Projected Score
AEK Larnaca 0–0 Apoel Nicosia
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
AEK Larnaca
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
AEK Larnaca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AEK LarnacaLWLDL
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Apoel NicosiaWDLLL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AEK LarnacaApoel Nicosia
52.8Attack58.3
71.3Defence77.8
67.6Form67.6
65.1Power67.5
0.89xG0.92