AEK Athens FCvs
Aris Thessalonikis
COMPLETEDGreece · Super League 1 · 9/5/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AEK Athens FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AEK Athens FC 5-0 Aris Thessalonikis
Original prediction
AEK Athens FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 67.5% | 46.8% | -20.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.54 | 20.6% | 25.6% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 7.89 | 11.9% | 27.5% | 15.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
AEK Athens FC
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
AEK Athens FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00