GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Europa League · 10/5/2023, 4:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

AEK Athens FC are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Ajax are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Ajax hold a 10.7-point power-rating edge (33.2 v 43.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.4% in the UEFA Europa League, while Ajax holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Ajax

Probability

44.4%

Model confidence

44.4%

Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

AEK Athens FCLWWWD

GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AjaxLDLDL

GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AEK Athens FCAjax
33.3Attack58.3
33.3Defence37.5
22.2Form33.3
33.2Power43.9
1.48xG1.90
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