Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ADT · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
ADT are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while UTC are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and ADT hold a 3.1-point power-rating edge (44.4 v 41.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.2% in the Primera División, while ADT holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
ADT
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
14.2%
ADT has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60