Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cienciano · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
ADT are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Cienciano are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Cienciano hold an 8.9-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 54.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.8% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Cienciano holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 46% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cienciano
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Cienciano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60