ADO Den Haagvs
Fortuna Sittard
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 9/6/2026, 2:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fortuna Sittard · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ADO Den Haag 2-3 Fortuna Sittard
Original prediction
Fortuna Sittard
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 46.7% | 31.2% | -15.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 24.1% | 23.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.22 | 29.2% | 45.5% | 16.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Fortuna Sittard
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Fortuna Sittard has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60