South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL
Saturday, 25 July 2026Last updated 10:12
Adelaide United II

Adelaide United II

Home
L
23
Full time
Sturt Lions

Sturt Lions

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
38% confidence
Adelaide United II(37%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Adelaide United II
37%
Draw
29%
Sturt Lions
34%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Adelaide United II
34
Sturt Lions
9
Defence
Adelaide United II
6
Sturt Lions
27
Momentum
Adelaide United II
0
Sturt Lions
0
Danger (xG)
Adelaide United II
0.90
Sturt Lions
0.00
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Adelaide United II)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Sturt Lions)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Adelaide United II)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Sturt Lions)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Adelaide United IIAdelaide United II
LW
Sturt LionsSturt Lions
L

Probability breakdown

38% confidence
Adelaide United II37%
Draw29%
Sturt Lions34%

Adelaide United II leads with 37% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Adelaide United II head into this in South Australia NPL fixture in mixed form (L), while Sturt Lions arrive in mixed form (L). Adelaide United II have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Sturt Lions over 1 games.

The model rates Adelaide United II's attack at 34/100 against a 27/100 Sturt Lions defence, and Sturt Lions's attack at 9/100 against a 6/100 Adelaide United II backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Adelaide United II have limited home data in the engine at this stage. Sturt Lions have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

There is no head-to-head data between Adelaide United II and Sturt Lions in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Adelaide United II to win with 38% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Adelaide United II 3652%, Draw 2904%, Sturt Lions 3445%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Recent form

Adelaide United II

Adelaide United II

L
@ West Adelaide
7 Jun 2026
13
W
@ Para Hills Knights
16 May 2026
20
Sturt Lions

Sturt Lions

L
vs Croydon Kings
16 May 2026
02

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Adelaide United II vs Sturt Lions?

GoalVio's model predicts Adelaide United II to win with 38% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Adelaide United II vs Sturt Lions?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Adelaide United II vs Sturt Lions?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Adelaide United II vs Sturt Lions?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more