GGOALVIO

Australia · South Australia NPL · 5/8/2026, 11:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Sturt Lions · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Adelaide Comets are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Sturt Lions are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Sturt Lions hold an 8.0-point power-rating edge (38.5 v 46.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.8% in the South Australia NPL, while Sturt Lions holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Sturt Lions

Probability

46.1%

Model confidence

11.8%

Sturt Lions has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Adelaide CometsLLDLL

GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Sturt LionsLWLLW

GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Adelaide CometsSturt Lions
37.9Attack53.0
42.4Defence45.5
30.3Form40.9
38.5Power46.5
1.33xG1.76
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