Adelaide Cityvs
Avondale
COMPLETEDAustralia · Australian Championship · 10/16/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avondale · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Adelaide City 2-2 Avondale
Original prediction
Avondale
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.55 | 25.7% | 35.4% | 9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.9% | 27.2% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 50.4% | 37.5% | -12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.82 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Avondale
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Avondale has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20