AD Marco 09vs
Maia Lidador
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AD Marco 09 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
AD Marco 09 1-0 Maia Lidador
Original prediction
AD Marco 09
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 70.5% | 53.9% | -16.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 20.4% | 24.2% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 9.84 | 9.2% | 21.9% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
AD Marco 09
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
AD Marco 09 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00